Apple: Bullish frenzy, muted, or sell-off after the launch of the iPhone 15?

Written by Larince Zhang

Mark down the date – Tuesday 12th September  – this will be the day when Apple Inc shall announce its brand new iPhone 15 (and possibly the associated new AirPods) and Apple Watches. The event, Wonderlust, will be streamed on the company’s official website, Apple TV app and YouTube channel from 5 pm (GMT).

Shares of Apple’s Revenue by Product Category. Source: Statista

iPhone has always been the category that has generated the most revenue for Apple (despite the shares declining for two consecutive quarters recently, to 48.5%). As consumer demand for smartphones and other electronic devices weakens and economic growth slows, the company has suffered declining sales for three consecutive quarters.

This time, the soon-to-be-released models are the iPhone 15 (6.1 -inch), iPhone 15 Plus (6.7 -inch), iPhone 15 Pro (6.1 -inch), and iPhone 15 Pro Max (6.7 -inch). All four models shall be using a USB-C port instead of a Lightning port to comply with new EU regulations – the first connector replacement since 2012. For iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, there will be no changes in design, but these models will be updated with some features of the Pro model last year, such as the A16 chip, smart island interface and 48-megapixel rear camera. Notable changes shall be seen in the Pro and Pro Max series. Appearance wise, these models have been redesigned with slimmer bezels, a titanium frame and slight modification to the curves of the corners. Function wise, the models are expected to be equipped with a more advanced 3nm A17 chip, a new customizable button that will replace the mute switch which was first introduced in 2007, and a lens with longer optical focal length (5x or 6x zoom, from 3x previously).

The company may also reveal its new Apple Watch Series 9 models and Apple Watch Ultra. Some minor upgrades/changes to be expected: faster processors, a magnetic buckled band, 3D printed stainless steel chassis, and “fresh” new pink color.

Statistically, the Apple stock price has fallen in value in 75% of the cases at the end of the launch day, which is interpreted as the market having already priced in the positive impact of the new release. On the other hand, other statistics by revealed that apple stock price has traded positive 60 days after the event in around 70% of the cases. Nonetheless, it is important to keep in mind that these historical statistics are only for reference purposes.

Technical Analysis:

YTD gains for #Apple stock has been over 50% so far. In fact, the tech behemoth has undergone a strong bullish phase since the beginning of this year, before it experienced technical reversal in August, leaving the ATH at $198.21. It found its support at a session low of $172.33, which was just above FR 38.2% ($170) of the bullish trend. To date, the asset price remains firm above $181-$184, which was previously a solid resistance zone. Persistence of bullish momentum shall encourage the asset to go higher, towards the ATH $198.21. The next target would be $200 as well as the $218 projected from the Fibonacci Expansion.

About the author

Larince Zhang

Larince entered the world of live market analysis and trading in 2013. Her passion ranges from foreign exchange to commodities, indices and futures as well as stocks. Having a Bachelor Degree majoring in Banking and Finance, she strives to make full use of her learned knowledge together with practical trading to achieve a more comprehensive market analysis.

Through years of trading experience, she believes “Simple is Best”, as the market is driven by human activity. It is human psychology that one should opt to improve on instead of mere technical or fundamental analysis. She believes in three core elements to a mature trading approach – scrupulous trading mindset, well-planned strategies and strict money management.