Citigroup is trading very close to the lower boundary of a year-long rectangle. This 42.81-54.30 range survived the October 2022 downside breakout, revealing a precarious balance among market participants. However, the recent developments in the US banking sector appear to have invigorated the stock bears. Citigroup has not recorded a lower low in the current phase, potentially disappointing the bears, but the long-term trend remains bearish.
Despite the momentum indicators plunging in bearish territory, the bears should not feel very confident regarding the short-term price moves. The weakening Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is indicating a trendless market, and both the RSI and stochastic oscillator are trying to set the scene for a recovery. Particularly the latter is hovering well inside its oversold territory, potentially revealing some bearish exhaustion and completing a bullish divergence. The latter needs confirmation from the price action, for example a move towards the October 2022 upward trendline. Nevertheless, the convergence of the simple moving averages (SMAs) could be an early sign of a sizeable move soon.
Should the bulls manage to retain market control, their first targets should come at the June 24, 2013 and January 16, 2015 lows of 45.04 and 46.65 respectively. If these long-term levels are easily digested by the bulls, the trifecta of the December 26, 2018 low and the 100- and 200-day SMAs could put up a stronger fight.
On the other side, the bears appear to be targeting the lower boundary of the recent rectangle at 42.81. If successful is breaking this boundary, their path appears to be unhindered until the October 30, 2020 low. This level should prove tougher to crack considering the fact that it represents a 2.5-year low.
To sum up, the Citigroup stock bears appear to remain in control, but the bulls could make baby steps towards the 45.00 area assisted by the stochastic oscillator’s current stance.
