EURUSD skyrockets to 3-month high; bullish bias in near term

EURUSD advanced sharply to a new three-month high of 1.0363 on Friday, continuing the bullish extension from Thursday’s session following the rebound off the parity level.

The pair has jumped above the long-term descending channel, that was drawn since February, and is moving towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If the market successfully surpassed the aforementioned line, then it may suggest a positive correction in the bigger outlook as well. However, the price is currently retreating with weak momentum, indicating a potential minor bearish move in the near term.

Regarding the technical oscillators, the MACD is strengthening its upside movement above its trigger and zero lines; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) touched the 70 region and is ticking slightly lower, suggesting an overbought market and a possible bearish move in the short-term timeframe.

More upside actions could hit the 200-day SMA at 1.0420 ahead of the 1.0620 resistance level, registered back on June 27. Edging higher, the bulls may meet the next resistance hurdles such as 1.0780 and 1.0900, taken from the high on May 30 and the lows on March 14, correspondingly.

On the other hand, a downside reversal may take the price towards the 1.0200 inside swing high from August 17 before meeting the 1.0100 barrier and the 1.0000 psychological mark. A drop lower again could turn the bias back to negative and attract traders’ attention to hit the bullish crossover within the 20- and 50-day SMAs at 0.9875 ahead of the short-term ascending trend line near 0.9820. Breaking this obstacle too, then the pair may re-touch the lows at 0.9630.

All in all, EURUSD is posting an aggressive bullish structure in the near-term and any moves beyond the next key line of the 200-day SMA could endorse this outlook, switching the picture to bullish in the bigger view.  

About the author

Melina Deltas

Melina joined XM in December 2017 as an Investment Analyst in the Research department. She can clearly communicate market action, particularly technical and chart pattern setups. Her technically focused method looks mainly at price action across multiple time frames to capture big moves that develop over the years. She has more than 3 years of experience in analyzing financial markets, specializing in forex, indices, and commodities. Melina studied Pure Mathematics at Lancaster University and has a Master's Degree in Monetary and Financial Economics from the University of Cyprus. Currently, she is an associate member of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe).