Events to Look Out for Next Week

Written by Andria Pichidi

The BoC and RBA policy meetings are the central bank highlights this week in the wake of rising inflation, concerns over supply chain disruptions, the developing situation in Ukraine and the escalation of tensions between the West and Russia. The war in Ukraine and the impacts on energy and other commodity prices should keep prices elevated and further delay the anticipated softening in “transitory” inflation. These factors will keep the markets volatile next week as the new month kicks off. On top of all this, the new month heralds a heavy dose of global data releases including GDPs, PMIs, US ADP and NFP data.

Monday – 28 February 2022

  • Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Retail Sales for Australia are seen at a 0.4% January rise from a contraction at -4.4% m/m.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 08:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. The final Q4 GDP for Switzerland is expected to grow at 0.4% q/q from 1.7% q/q, with headline at 1.7% y/y from 4.1% y/y.

Tuesday – 01 March 2022

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The manufacturing number is expected to rise slightly in February to 49.5 from 49.1, but holds below the key 50.00 pivot point.
  • Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – According to a Reuters poll, the RBA will raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade in Q3, slightly earlier than thought a month ago, up to 0.50% by year-end from 0.25% previously. Hence no action is expected in March.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. December GDP for Canada is expected to grow at 0.3% m/m from 0.6% m/m.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 58.0 from 57.6 in January, compared to an 18-year high of 63.7 in March, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Wednesday – 02 March 2022

  • OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  • Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. The Q4 GDP for Australia is expected to grow at 0.5% q/q from -1.9% q/q, with headline at 4.8% y/y from 3.9% y/y.
  • ADP Employment change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The private payrolls report is expected to show a rise to 328,000 from a -301,000 drop in January. Although the link to the NFP data is clearly now broken many traders will still be focused on the size of the decline in private payrolls.
  • Interest Rate Decision & Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The BoC is expected to hike rates by 25 bps and signal that more tightening is ahead this year. The further climb in total CPI this January to a 5.1% annual rate (nsa), marking the fastest pace in 31 years, added to the case for a forceful increase in rates this year. We see at least five rate hikes of 25 bps each in 2022, with scope for six moves. As for the timing, we are currently pencilling in three to four back to back 25 bp hikes before a brief pause in order to judge the impact (seven announcement dates remain this year). Inflation is broad based and policy needs to be adjusted in order to temper inflation and, perhaps more importantly, inflation expectations.
  • Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 15:00)

Thursday – 03 March 2022

  • ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 13:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 61.0 from 59.9 in January, down from an all-time high of 68.4 in November.
  • Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 15:00)
  • BoC Governor Macklem Speech (CAD, GMT 16:30)

Friday – 04 March 2022

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 380,000 February nonfarm payroll increase, after gains of 467k in January, 510k in December, and 647k in November. Diminished payroll restraints are anticipated from the Omicron wave that allows a boost for the workweek and hours-worked, but a diminished hourly earnings gain. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, after gains of 0.7% in January and 0.5% in December, while the jobless rate is expected to dip to 3.9% from 4.0% in January. In the last expansion we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022.

About the author

Andria Pichidi

Having completed her five-year-long studies in the UK, Andria Pichidi has been awarded a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bath and a MSc degree in Mathematics, while she holds a postgraduate diploma (PGdip) in Actuarial Science from the University of Leicester.

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