Ukraine jitters, inflation fears and some divergent CB policies will continue to drive the market. Word out of the NATO meeting indicated that G7 leaders will continue with sanctions and stand ready to add more, keeps energy market to the upside especially as commodity traders warn of plunging market liquidity and rising volatility. Meanwhile, China and India gain the advance of lower cost pressures. All the above will continue to dominate next week’s agendas along with a heavy dose of global data releases including US NFP, US, UK and Canada GDP and central bankers’ speeches.
Monday – 28 March 2022
- BOE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 11:00)
Tuesday – 29 March 2022
- Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 10:30) – Retail Sales for February are expected to grow at 1.2% from 1.8% m/m in January.
- Jolts & CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Job openings changed little at 11.3 million on the last business day of January. Consumer confidence is expected to fall to a 13-month low of 105.0 from 110.5 in February, versus a 7-month low of 109.8 in September. Confidence is being pushed down by soaring prices with supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine, alongside the ongoing pull-back in the 2020-21 confidence lift from stimulus.
Wednesday – 30 March 2022
- MPC Member Broadbent speech (GBP, GMT 09:10)
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated unchanged at 0.9% m/m and headline at 5.4% y/y.
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to climb to 400k (a 75k decline on last month’s reading).
- Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30)– The Final Q4 GDP for US is expected to boost to 7.3% from the 7.0% preliminary figure. The Q4 GDP figures document a sharp turn in the inventory cycle to accumulation after a prolonged inventory liquidation phase. Production was finally able to overtake aggregate demand, as businesses struggled to patch supply bottlenecks to meet unprecedented levels of “goods” demand.
Thursday – 31 March 2022
- Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to contract to 49.8 in March from 50.2.
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The final UK GDP results for Q4 is for growth of 6.5% on an annualized basis.
- Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Retail Sales for Germany are expected to drift to 0.1% in February from 2%, with headline at 2.4% y/y.
- Personal Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – February’s personal income is anticipated to rise at 0.6% in February, following a flat January rate.
- Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The consensus for Canada GDP results for January is for growth of 0.1% m/m from 0.6%.
- FOMC Member Williams speech (USD, GMT 13:00)
- Gov Board Member Maechler speech (CHF, GMT 15:00)
Friday – 01 April 2022
- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – An 380k March nonfarm payroll increase is forecasted, after gains of 678k in February, 481k in January, and 588k in December. Payroll growth should slow gradually through 2022 with reduced growth in the economy. We expect the jobless rate to dip to 3.7% from 3.8% in February. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.3% after the 0.8% February increase. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.5%, after a flat figure in February. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 57.8 from 58.6 in February, compared to an 18-year high of 63.7 in March, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.