Ukraine jitters, inflation fears and some divergent CB policies will continue to drive the market, after Q122 was the worst quarter for two years for stock markets. With record inflation numbers in Europe, weak PMIs globally and a strong non-farm payroll report, nearly every metric last week added to pressure for action from the Central Banks. The first full week of April has less data to move markets but minutes from the FOMC and ECB will hold sway, underpinned by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Monday – 04 April 2022
- Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The trade surplus for Germany is expected to lower in February to 6.1 bln from 9.4 bln in January.
- BOC Business Outlook Survey (CAD, GMT 14:30)
Tuesday – 05 April 2022
- Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – This week, the stronger than expected retail sales had added to speculation of RBA hikes, and concern that aggressive central bank action will sap growth is mounting. However the RBA is expected to keep policy unchanged, given the heightened uncertainty on the inflation outlook, with the bank signalling in its latest meeting that it will remain patient on rates.
- Composite PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The final March Composite PMI is expected higher at 60.2 from the 2-months low of 59.7 in preliminary readings for March. The PMIs highlighted that new business by UK private sector firms continued to improve sharply, although the manufacturing sector in particular highlighted “softer demand conditions and greater uncertainty among clients” thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- Non-Manufacturing ISM (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 58.0 from 56.5 in February, versus an all-time high 68.4 in November. We saw an 11-year low of 41.8 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November of 2008. We’ve seen a broad four-month pull-back in most of the producer sentiment measures from remarkably firm November levels to readings that are still historically elevated, and we may see some updraft in sentiment in March. Producers have benefited from diminished Omicron fears, higher prices despite rising input costs, and the need to rebuild inventories in 2022 after the stimulus-induced 2021 sales surge.
Wednesday – 06 April 2022
- Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Canada Ivey PMI Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
- EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)
- FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. The FOMC has highlighted so far that it remains focused on inflation, and attempts to lower price pressures could concurrently temper the FOMC’s hawkish stance. Fed funds futures remain in the green, in tandem with the rally in Treasuries, as expectations for a more aggressive FOMC stance are pared a bit. The May contract is splitting the difference between a 25 bp and a 50 bp hike.
Thursday – 07 April 2022
- Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The trade surplus for Australia is expected to lower in February to 9.05 bln from 12.89 bln in January.
- Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Final Eurozone sales for February should be higher at 0.4% m/m from 0.2%, with headline however to fall significantly to 4.2% y/y from 7.8% y/y.
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. The ECB’s staff forecasts were updated in March, but are already starting to look outdated and Lagarde and Lane are already starting to talk dovish. That may partly be designed to keep a lid on market rates as inflation goes through the roof, but is also likely to reflect the upcoming battle between the doves and the hawks as growth forecasts are being slashed.
Friday – 08 April 2022
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s unemployment is anticipated higher in March to 6.2% from 5.5%. In February, Canada’s employment rose 336.6k following the -200.1k fall in January, as Covid faded and businesses reopened. The rise was larger than expected. The jobless rate fell to 5.5% from 6.5%. Full time employment rose 121.5kk after a -82.7k drop. Part time positions saw a 215kk rise following the -117.4k drop in January. The average hourly wage rate of permanent employees, a BOC favorite, rose to 3.1% y/y after the 2.4% y/y rate of increase in January.