The French Presidential Election poses weekend risk for the Euro along with ongoing Ukraine jitters, inflation fears and some divergent CB policies continuing to underpin sentiment. The second week of April has some key data releases topped by the rate decision from the ECB, supported by decisions & outlooks from the BOC & RBNZ. Global Inflation data from China, Germany, the UK & US, US Retail Sales data and Australian Jobs data will provide more guidance on the outlook. The week also the heralds the start of the Q1 Earnings Season with the major Wall Street Banks all reporting.
Monday – 11 April 2022
- Chinese Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30) – CPI (1.0%) and PPI (10.4%) data is expected to move higher after trending lower from December’s & November’s peaks at 2.3% and 13.5%, respectively. Data last month was 0.9% and 8.8%, and both are likely to move higher in the coming months as a consequence of the strict lockdown in Shanghai.
- GDP, Trade Balance, Manu. & Production data (GBP, GMT 06:00) The major UK economic data release is likely to show mixed results, with declines in the Trade Balance data, a major slide in GDP (m/m) to 0.1% from 0.8% but possible resilient Industrial Production and Manufacturing data.
Tuesday – 12 April 2022
- German HICP (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The hot topic for the Eurozone’s biggest & most important economy. Unchanged data is expected with m/m data at 2.5% and y/y data at 7.3%, but bias remains to the upside.
- UK Claims & Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – A remarkably resilient UK economy may be evident today – Earnings and wages have been rising but not keeping up with inflation causing the biggest cost of living squeeze in the UK for over 50 years. Claims could fall further but Earnings are likely to rise with Bonuses to 5.7% from 4.8%.
- CPI & CORE CPI (USD, GMT 12:30) – The m/m CPI rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.5% with the y/y rate rising to 6.6% from 6.4% and to 8.3% from 7.9% when the impacts of Food & Energy are taken into account, with likely higher rates in the months ahead too. The UN on Friday reported its index of world food prices had climbed 12.6% in March.
Wednesday – 13 April 2022
- RBNZ Rate Statement & Cash Rate (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The first of the Central banks to report this week is the RBNZ, expected to keep rate unchanged, for the time being, (at 1.05) but also likely to follow the RBA last week in upping its hawkish rhetoric. The Kiwi rallied to over 0.7020 last week, only to touch 0.6850 on Friday.
- UK CPI, PPI & RPI & CORE CPI (GBP, GMT 06:00) – More UK data likely to show 30-yr+ highs for inflation, be it RPI (8.4% from 8.2%), PPI (10.6% from 9.9%) or the most important CPI (6.6% from 6.2%) as the pressure builds on UK businesses and households.
- BOC Rate Statement & Cash Rate (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The BOC were the first major G7 central bank to start trimming their huge QE programme, and with QT now firmly underway around the world are expected to leave interest rates unchanged but express hawkish concerns over the short to medium term. Governor Macklem is due to face the press 60 minutes after the announcement.
Thursday – 14 April 2022
- Jobs & Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market continues to hold-up last month 77,400 new jobs were created the and unemployment rate fell to pandemic lows of 4%. New jobs this month are expected be less than +50,000 with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged.
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The final central bank this week is the ECB, the one with the biggest issues in regard to the impact for the EZ economy from the War in Ukraine. Markets are running away with the tightening story, especially after the hawkish ECB minutes that followed a record high inflation number for March and the Fed’s aggressive plans to scale back the balance sheet alongside multiple rate hikes. Will Ms. Lagarde and her team be keen to follow on the QT story before year end as as early as Q3? Press Conference follows 45 minutes after Statement.
- Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to increase in March to 0.6% from 0.3% in February with the important ex-Autos reading also rising to 0.7% from 0.2%.
Friday – 15 April 2022 – Good Friday – Bank Holidays in many countries
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The highly volatile Empire State data is expected to show a positive reading significantly up from last month’s steep decline to -11.8 from 3.1 in February and -0.7 in January.