Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Inflation concerns and central banks are expected to continue to dominate, as the agenda is full of central bankers’ speeches. The further run up in trade price pressures will add to the CB angst over inflation and the commitment to bring it down, while the apparent resilience in the economy should give the CBs the room to tighten financial conditions. In the meantime, the calendar is backed by PMI releases and Retail Sales from the UK, China and Australia.
Monday – 18 April 2022
- Retail Sales & Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to be lower at 0.6% q/q, with headline higher at 4.4% y/y. The headline for Retail Sales for March is seen contracting to -1.6% y/y from 6.7% y/y.
Tuesday – 19 April 2022
- RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The minutes could spark some light on RBA’s next actions. On April, RBA left the official rate unchanged, but removed the reference of “patience”. Note that inflation expectations meanwhile jumped to 5.2%, the highest level since July 2012, which will keep the RBA in high alert.
- Housing Starts and Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts are expected to fall -1.4% to a 1.745 mln pace in March from a 16-year high pace of 1.769 mln in February and 1.657 mln in December, versus a 15-year high of 1.725 mln last March. Permits are expected to fall -0.5% to 1.855 mln from 1.865 mln in February and a 16-year high pace of 1.895 mln in January.
- SNB’s Chairman Jordan speech (CHF, GMT 16:30)
Wednesday – 20 April 2022
- Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI rose to a 5.7% (y/y, nsa) pace in February from the 5.6% growth rate in January. This is the highest since August 1991. CPI grew 1.0% (m/m, nsa) after the 0.9% gain in January. The average of the BoC’s three core CPI measures was 4.2% in February (y/y, nsa), up from 3.9% in January. Per Statistics Canada, price increases were broad-based in February. Consumers paid higher prices for gasoline and groceries in February 2022 compared with the same month a year earlier. Shelter costs continued to trend higher, rising at the fastest year-over-year pace since August 1983.
- Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 headline inflation could rise to 7.1% y/y from 5.9% y/y in the previous month, and 2% q/q from 1.4% q/q. This could alert RBNZ for further aggressive action. The bank started increasing rates back in October from the record low 0.25% that persisted through the pandemic.
Thursday – 21 April 2022
- Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian prelim. Retail Sales for March expected to fall at 1.0% from 1.8% last month.
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The March inflation could confirmed at 7.5% y/y.
- Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 20.0 from 27.4 in March but a lower 16.0 in February, versus a 48-year high of 50.2 in April of 2021. The various producer sentiment measures have moderated to still historically elevated levels from remarkably firm figures in November, though levels have rebounded modestly since February as producer benefit from the rapid climb in prices due to supply chain disruptions. Firms face the ongoing need to rebuild inventories following the 2021 sales surge associated with massive stimulus spending that left demand for most industries well above pre-pandemic levels.
- BOE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 16:30)
- FED’s Chairman Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)
- ECB’s President Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 17:00)
Friday – 22 April 2022
- Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Expectations are for a -0.3% March retail sales drop unchanged from last month.
- Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The prelim. German Manufacturing PMI for April is seen dipping lower at 54.6 from 56.9.
- Manufacturing & Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The prelim. PMI for April are expected to present once again that the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with supply chain disruptions and of course the sharp rise in energy prices. UK Services PMI is anticipated at 59.9 from 62.6 last month and manufacturing PMI at 54.3 from 55.2.
- Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) –The final Core Retail Sales for February are seen at 2.4 % m/m from 2.5% m/m.