February 22 – RISK OFF – Stocks Dive, Treasuries Up, Oil Leaps

Written by Stuart Cowell

Stocks have collapsed as Treasuries rally and a major rally in Oil and Gold as President Putin recognizes the breakaway regions of Ukraine and orders troops into the country. The West prepares more sanctions, with USD and JPY bid. NZD also holds Friday’s bid ahead of RBNZ. Gold rallied to test $1914Oil rallied up 3.4%Yields fell to 1.858 from 1.91 from Friday’s close. Asian markets sank (Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng worst performer -3.2%). VIX futures trade -5.7%, EuroStoxx FUTS -3.44%.

  • USD up(USDIndex 96.11). USD on bid next resistance 96.30 from 14/2.
  • US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.932 close Friday to 1.91% now to test 1.90.
  • Equities – USA500 -32 pts (-0.72%) 4348 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.0%) to 4230 earlier, back to 4285 now.  
  • USOil – Topped at $94.00, back to under $92.00 now and trades at $91.72. 
  • Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now back to $1908.     
  • Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $36,800. 
  • FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1300, USDJPY holds below 115.00 to 114.50 earlier and 114.75 now. Cable breaches under 1.3600 and trades at 1.3590.  

Overnight – JPY CPI data (0.8% vs 1.1% & 0.5% previously), but all focus was centred on geopolitics.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 49 ticks, US futures are outperforming as investors head for safety while keeping a close eye on the developing situation in east Ukraine. The standoff between the West and Russia will keep pressure on stock markets, which already sold off yesterday and are set to correct even more today. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -1.1% and –0.7% respectively.

Today – German Ifo, US Flash PMIs, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings HSBC (beta), Home Depot.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.27%) Rallied from lows of  0.6120 earlier, popped to 0.6155 and trades at 0.6140 now. MAs now aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram significantly below 0 line, RSI 43.25 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.00010, Daily ATR 0.0048.

About the author

Stuart Cowell

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, charts and sentiment work together to provide trading opportunities across all asset classes and all time frames.

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