Gold retreats from recent highs; bulls try to keep it above 2,000

Gold is hovering around the March 20, 2023 high of 2,010, having retreated from the recent one-year higher high. Keeping gold price above the 2,000 threshold appears to be their primary target for the bulls, following the rather explosive move from the early March 2023 dip at the 1,800 area.

On the other hand, gold bears are trying to stage a comeback. They appeared massively unprepared at the recent rally as multiple resistance points were broken until the April 13, 2023 high of 2,049. Favouring the bears, the momentum indicators seem to suggest that the bullish move has run its course. In particular, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is clearly pointing to a trendless market at this juncture.

Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator is sending a “double” message. This indicator has been hovering at its overbought (OB) territory for the past month, clearly showing signs of exhaustion. In addition, the recent higher high in gold has not been confirmed by a similar print in the stochastic, setting the scene for a bearish divergence.

Should the bears muster the courage and take advantage of the bearish signals, they would aim for a break of the 2,000 level. Lower, the January 6, 2021 high of 1,959 seems to be a strong support area, just ahead of the September 6, 2021 high of 1,921.

On the other hand, the bulls would love another retest of the recent high of 2,049. If successful, the August 7, 2020 high of 2,075 would then be the next target.

To sum up, the recent rally appears to have run out of gas. Gold bears are trying to push the price below the 2,000 mark on the back of some initial bearish signs from the momentum indicators.

About the author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics. Previously, she earned a bachelor of science in Economics from the University of Cyprus. Apart from foreign exchange markets, her research interests include the impact of International trade on labour markets and product development.