January 19 – Stocks tank, Yields higher, Inflation weighs

Written by Stuart Cowell

Stock markets sank (Nasdaq -2.6% as the VIX pushed higher +5.22%). Financials and Pharma companies led the slide, USD firmer supported by high Yields – the main market driver. US 10-yr 1.85%, German 10-yr to May 2019 highs as Inflation in UK & Germany hits 30-year highs. Oil higher again, Gold continues to gyrate. Pressure on UK PM grows.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.65) holds on to gains.
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher – closed at 1.865% &  trades at 1.883%.    
  • Equities – USA500 -85 (-1.84%) 4577 (GS -6.97%, BAC -3.44%, FB -4.0%, SONY -7.0%.  Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4539.     
  • USOil – Spiked over $87.00 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles continues to unsettle sentiment.
  • Gold – holds at $1812 from a test of $1820 & spike to $1806.
  • Bitcoin tested to $42,400, back to 41,200 now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1336USDJPY now 114.40 tested 115.00 yesterday,  Cable back to 1.3600, from 1.3570 lows yesterday. 

Overnight – UK CPI – 2 ticks higher at 5.4% vs 5.2% CORE 3 ticks higher at 4.2%, RPI up to 7.5% from 7.1% & new 30-year highs. German CPI in line at 5.3% and HICP at 5.7%. 

European Open – The 10-year Bund yield has lifted 2.4 bp to 0.002% in early trade with high readings for German and U.K. December CPI adding to pressure. Global equity markets are struggling with the sharp rise in yields and intensifying tightening expectations, leaving DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 has lost -0.7% so far and a -0.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Pretty much the same picture as yesterday, with markets at risk of running way with tightening concerns, and central banks increasingly under pressure.

Today – Canadian CPI, IEA OMR, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from Bank of America, MS, UnitedHealth. DAVOS continues.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.35%)  Rallied from 3-day decline to 0.8455 to 0.8495 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & testing 0 line. RSI 56 & rising,  H1 ATR 0.0011 Daily ATR 0.0056.

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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About the author

Stuart Cowell

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, charts and sentiment work together to provide trading opportunities across all asset classes and all time frames.

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