Market Update – July 29/2022

Written by Stuart Cowell

USDIndex sinks again tanked to 105.75, from 106.80.  The US is in a technical recession (2 consecutive quarters of contraction) after Q2 GDP -0.9% & (Q1 -1.6%), and GDP Inflation rose to 8.7% from 8.0%) but Unemployment remains very low and job creation (Claims fell to 256K from 261k) and wage growth are strong.  US Stocks rallied another 1%+ on expectations of slower rate hikes. $AMZN +1.08% & $AAPL +0.36%, both beat Earnings after hours, shares were up 3% & 12%, respectively. $Meta -5.2% & $QCOM -4.54%.  Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -2.02%, Nikkei -0.03%). European FUTS higher. Yields continue to see-saw, today -1.94%, Oil under $97, Gold breached $1760  and BTC moved up to $24k.

Biden & Xi meeting skirted Taiwan talk, Ukrainian forces plan counterattacks in the South, Russia shells Kiev.

  • USDIndex weakens further to 105.45 now. YEN outperforms again in Asian session.
  • Equities – USA500 closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at 4105 now. Bears being squeezed, 10 days north of 20-day MA. 4175 next key resistance 
  • Yields 10-year yield dived into close 2.681%, down again to 2.67% now. 
  • Oil – peaked at $99.80 yesterday down to test $96.00 before recovering to $97.00 now. 
  • Gold – breached & broke key 20-day MA ($1745) and $1750. Trades at $1765 now.
  • Bitcoin also rallied on weaker USD to trade at $24.1K now. 
  • FX Markets – EURUSD rallied to test 1.0250 on EZ news, USDJPY dived 1% under 133.00 to 132.75. Cable broke 1.2200 and trades at 1.2225.  

Overnight – JPY Tokyo Inflation hotter, Retail Sales, Housing Starts & Consumer Confidence weaker, AUD PPI inline, French GDP better, German Import Prices in line.

Today – German Flash GDP & Unemployment, EZ Flash CPI and Flash Q2 GDPUS Jun PCE, US Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-1.13%). Breached key technical level at 133.00 today and tests 132.50. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 19.77, OS & falling,  H1 ATR 0.365, Daily ATR 1.230.

About the author

Stuart Cowell

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, charts and sentiment work together to provide trading opportunities across all asset classes and all time frames.

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