Market Update – June 21/2022

Written by Stuart Cowell

USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.16), Stocks closed higher in Europe (DAX +1.01%, FTSE100 +1.50%) & Asian shares opened over 1% higher and closed positively (Nikkei +2.09%) US Futures +1.15%. Yields rallied (US 10yr 3.2976%). Oil ticks 2% higher, lifting CAD pairs, after Fridays sell-off and Gold & BTC slide sideways. Yellen talks of a “price cap” and “tax” for Russian oil exports and a tax “holiday” for gasoline in US to ease inflation. (Ruble @ 15 mth high). Japan PM Kishida & FM Suzuki: Rapid yen weakening is a source of concern.  RBA’s Lowe rates need to go higher in low unemployment high inflation Australia.

Week Ahead – Will be dominated by Central Bank Speak topped by FED Chair Powell’s  2-day testimony to Congress. CPI & PMI data also due this week.

  • USDIndex tested 104.00 on Monday and holds at 104.15 today. 
  • Equities – USA500 closed yesterday (Friday 3674), US500FUTS at 3725 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher , trades at  3.29% now.   
  • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil recovered over 2% to trade at $110.20.  Gold could not hold $1840 and trades at $1835 now.   
  • Bitcoin pivots off $20K, to test $21K now.
  • FX markets – EURUSD holds at  1.0525,  USDJPY holds over 135.00 zone shy of 24-yr high 135.50 and Cable trades up 20 pips to 1.2260. 

Overnight – Goldman Sachs – US recession in the next year, @30% (was 15%)

Today – Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from ECB’s Rehn, Fed’s Barkin & Mester.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.30%). Continues to move higher from 101.65 test on Thursday to  104.50, as Oil recovers from sell-off. Next key resistance 104.75 & 105.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & turning higher, RSI 71 ,OB but still rising,   H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 1.343.

About the author

Stuart Cowell

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, charts and sentiment work together to provide trading opportunities across all asset classes and all time frames.

Leave a Comment