Market Update – June 30/2022

Written by Andria Pichidi

USD recovers (USDIndex 104.96), Stocks drop but in Asia markets mostly added to yesterday’s losses, despite China bourses outperforming after data signaled signs of improvement and the PBOC reiterated its pledge to provide support for the economy, with a focus on stabilising jobs and inflation. Yields are currently down -2.7 bp and -1.1 bp respectively and bonds in Australia and New Zealand also moved higher. Bonds still remain supported by reaffirmation from core central bankers of their commitment to lowering inflation back to the 2% targetChina’s official Composite PMI & German retail sales bounced back.  UK Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.8% q/q in the final reading, unchanged from the previous release and leaving the annual rate at 8.7% y/y. Oil at 109.12, Gold steady.

  • USDIndex up to 104.96, from where the strength is starting to peter out. The buck has rallied against the majors and looks to be capturing a haven bid as well.
  • Equities – USA100 and USA500 are about -0.25% lower, while the GER40 has tumbled -1.80% and the UK100 is -0.15% lower.  Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.6% and -2% respectively.
  • Yields 10-year slid 8 bps to 3.09%. Bond market closing early on Friday.
  • Oil has fallen -2.17% to $109.33. 
  • Gold steady at $1,817.
  • Bitcoin below 20K!
  • FX Markets – EURUSD drifted to 1.0432, USDJPY peaked at 137 area, Cable recovered slightly, at 1.2160 from 1.2105.

Lagarde repeats ECB is determined to bring inflation down. She remains tight lipped on new crisis tool, but repeated that there is the need for the ECB to safeguard an even transmission of monetary policy and that the bank will as a first step use the re-investment of previous purchases to address any unwarranted disruptions. 

Powell: there are risks we would go too far in tightening policy, but that is not the biggest risk. He said the bigger risk is that there is an insufficient response and inflation expectations become unanchored. And once those expectations become unmoored, “the cost of dealing with higher inflation goes up so much… you just cannot allow it to happen.”

BoE’s Bailey would not specify the Bank’s next move when answering a direct question on whether the hike will be by 50 bps. He said, though, that there will be circumstances where the BoE will have to do more, but he wants to see what happens in the coming months. 

Today – OPEC+ enters a second and final day of meetings today. Focus is also on the US PCE, Canadian GDP and Inflation from Japan. 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (-4.82%) reverted 3-day losses. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines turned positive but signal line remains well below 0 & RSI is at 65. H1 ATR 2.24, Daily ATR 7.83.

About the author

Andria Pichidi

Having completed her five-year-long studies in the UK, Andria Pichidi has been awarded a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bath and a MSc degree in Mathematics, while she holds a postgraduate diploma (PGdip) in Actuarial Science from the University of Leicester.