US Inflation Commentary

Treasury yields surged in a bear flattener on the hotter than expected CPI data, with the 2-year climbing over 10 bps to 1.456%. 10-year zoomed over 6 bps to 1.9979% with sights on the 2% level. The 5-year cheapened 8 bps to 1.897%. The curve narrowed to 52.7 bps from 57.3 bps. The market is pricing in 150 bps in hikes this year, with the April contract reflecting 46 bps. EGBs are also selling off on the back of the US inflation print.

ECB officials had been out in force earlier today to calm rate hike speculation, but while that helped to keep a lid on the short end, the US inflation overshoot has pushed up long rates and led to a steeping of Eurozone curves, while the UK curve has shifted broadly higher. That suggests the ECB needs to maneuver very carefully at the moment, with any push back against tightening expectations risking a pick up in inflation expectations.

About the author

Stuart Cowell

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, charts and sentiment work together to provide trading opportunities across all asset classes and all time frames.

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