WTI oil futures limit monthly losses; broad trend bearish

WTI oil futures are rising for the second consecutive week, having retraced almost half of the March downfall to re-enter the previous five-month-old range area above the 73.00 mark.

The 73.00 area will be closely watched in the short-term as the 200-period exponential moving average on the weekly chart is currently capping bullish actions around the same location. If the price crawls higher, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could immediately halt the recovery from stretching into the 76.80-77.50 zone. Another success here could prompt a fast rally towards the upper boundary of the bearish channel and the 200-day SMA both seen near 81.00.

From a technical perspective, the above bullish scenario is not the most likely yet. Despite the latest upturn in the price, the RSI has yet to pierce above its 50 neutral mark, while the MACD is still some distance below zero. Meanwhile, the stochastic oscillator has already reached the overbought territory above 80, flagging fading upside pressures.

In the event the price pulls below 73.00 and beneath the 20-day SMA, the spotlight will shift to the 70.00 psychological mark and the 50% Fibonacci level of 68.35. A decisive close lower could press the price straight to the channel’s lower band seen at 60.85, unless the barrier of 65.85 comes to the rescue beforehand. A bearish channel breakout could then bring the March 2021 floor of 57.30 next into view.

In a nutshell, the ongoing bullish wave in WTI oil futures has not convinced buyers yet. Downside risks may keep lingering in the background unless the price breaks above the channel and the 81.00 number.

About the author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics. Previously, she earned a bachelor of science in Economics from the University of Cyprus. Apart from foreign exchange markets, her research interests include the impact of International trade on labour markets and product development.