Commodities

WTI oil futures set a floor, but is it stable?

WTI oil futures (April delivery) started the day on a positive note on Thursday after two weeks of harsh selling. The positive momentum in the price is following the formation of a bullish doji around 95.32, which seems to have set the ground for an upside reversal along with the ascending trendline drawn from December’s low of 62.25.

That said, the short-term bias has not switched to the bullish side yet, according to the momentum indicators. The RSI has slipped below its 50 neutral mark, though marginally, while the MACD continues to lose steam below its red signal line, reflecting cautious trading in the market.

The broken resistance line, which connects all the highs from March 2021, will be closely watched in the near term at 97.11. Should the price successfully return above it, sustaining strength above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 62.25 – 130.50 upleg at 96.38 as well, the next barricade could emerge around the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 104.43. Crawling higher, the price could challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci of 114.39 before accelerating towards the 13-year high of 130.50.

Alternatively, a pullback below the supportive trendline and the 50-day SMA at 92.69 could forcefully press the price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 83.95, where October’s high is also placed. Hence, a step lower from here would downgrade the market’s outlook to neutral, bringing the 200-day SMA and the 78.6% Fibonacci of 76.86 next into view.In summary, despite today’s positive price action in WTI oil futures, negative risks are still lingering in the background. A clear deviation above the 97.00 level could bolster buying appetite in the short term, while a slide below 92.69 is expected to produce additional bearish corrections.

About the author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics. Previously, she earned a bachelor of science in Economics from the University of Cyprus. Apart from foreign exchange markets, her research interests include the impact of International trade on labour markets and product development.

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